Weekly ICP Price Speculation: Dodging the Ban Hammer

Geoffrey Miller
Geoffrey Miller
Weekly ICP Price Speculation: Dodging the Ban Hammer
Table of Contents
Table of Contents

Most of our readers will have noticed the slump in crypto prices over the past few days. Let's break down what the SEC's ban on crypto staking means for the Internet Computer community and ICP price prediction.

Most of our readers will have noticed the slump in crypto prices over the past few days. After signs of revival in the industry in recent weeks, unfortunately, it now seems that regulatory crackdowns will extend bear market conditions for the foreseeable future. Of particular concern is talk of an imminent ban on staking digital assets in the United States, as reported by Reuters.

Let's break down what this means for the Internet Computer community and ICP price prediction.

SEC "Kraken" Down on Crypto

First, a recap of current events.

As reported by Andrew Ross Sorkin, Ravi Mattu, Bernhard Warner, Sarah Kessler, Michael J. de la Merced, Lauren Hirsch and Ephrat Livni over at the The New York Times, top executives across the crypto industry are worried. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fined Kraken $30 million USD and ordered the exchange to shut down its US cryptocurrency staking services. It's worth noting Commissioner Hester M. Peirce dissented from the decision, and her statement is well worth the read if you have a few spare moments.

SEC.gov | Kraken Down: Statement on SEC v. Payward Ventures, Inc., et al.
Kraken Down Commissioner Hester M. Peirce February 9, 2023

The penalty was imposed after the SEC claimed that Kraken had failed to register the program. This marks the first time the SEC has cracked down on staking, a common service offered at both centralized and decentralized crypto exchanges. SEC Chair Gary Gensler said that most staking providers fail to supply proper disclosures and that they should register their staking services with the SEC.

Kraken has not admitted to, nor denied, any of the allegations. But that's beside the point. The exchange has agreed to end its on-chain staking services for US clients, which will affect assets enrolled in its program by US users. The settlement comes a year after a subsidiary of the crypto company BlockFi agreed to pay $100 million USD to the SEC and 32 states over charges connected to a retail crypto lending product it offered. So, this is part of a pattern of regulatory restrictions.

Implications for the ICP Ecosystem

One immediately wonders what a general ban on US residents staking crypto assets might mean for the burgeoning ICP ecosystem. It's tempting to give into alarmism and view current events through an interpretive lens of catastrophe, but I'd urge a more nuanced and considerate approach. After all, ICP price is holding steady at $5.20 USD at the time of writing, and crypto scams have been out of control over the past few years.  

Maybe the SEC's current decision on staking is rash, however, that doesn't mean all regulation is bad — nor does it mean the ban is permanent. The great thing about living in a democracy is that public policy is always an evolving conversation, and bad decisions can be reconsidered based on civil input.

In the meantime, here's what I want to know:

  • What does the SEC decision mean for services like InfinitySwap?
  • What about staking ICP in neurons on the NNS dApp?

Granted, the United States isn't the entire world (no matter how much we might like to think we are), and depending on the actions of other countries, talk of a general  SEC ban on crypto staking may turn out to be nothing more than a minor speed bump in the development of Web3.

Still, it's a speed bump US residents would rather not have in our neighborhood.

Weekly ICP Price Prediction

What can we expect for the future of ICP coin price?

In the short term, in view of the SEC decision on staking, a holding pattern between $5.00 and $5.50 USD is likely (down about $0.50 USD from last week), with some potential for day trading opportunities based on market reactions to ongoing US Federal Reserve interest rate hike discussions.

Here's what the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm used on the past 90 days of ICP price data has to show for us.

Of course, the usual disclaimer for ICP price prediction applies. Namely, any substantial price gains or losses are difficult to predict, but ICP has proven its resilience in the past and may surprise us in the future.

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  • Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed on this website are solely those of the original author and other contributors. These views and opinions do not necessarily represent those of the CoinHustle staff and/or any/all contributors to this site.

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