There were no surprises over the past week. The price of ICP held steady between $30 and $35 USD, the upper range of my previous forecast. While we have not yet seen ICP bottom out as predicted by Kyle Langham and several other analysts, neither have we seen a sustained bull-run as hoped for by many speculators.
What can we expect from ICP going forward?
Short Term: No News is No News
Apart from the announcement of Terabethia and other December developments, it's been business as usual on the Internet Computer. The ecosystem continues to rapidly expand, new NFT projects debut daily, and outreach efforts are bearing fruit - but none of this will likely impact ICP price in the short term. To see real change, it will probably take months or quarters, not days and weeks.
Mid Term: Bottoming Out
It may not be the most popular opinion, but I remain convinced by Kyle Langham's argument that ICP price could dip to about $17 at some point prior to June 2022. While it's possible that demand for ICP could increase due to NFT projects and hype about upcoming DeFi platforms, that doesn't negate the fact that about 5 to 6 million ICP will still hit the market every month during the first half of 2022 due to dissolving neurons. I don't foresee demand overcoming this new supply in the next few months.
Long Term: Price Squeeze
Burn mechanisms for ICP, combined with exponentially increasing demand, will most likely overcome supply at some point between the latter half of 2022 and the first part of 2024. Therefore, barring any surprises, investors should expect to see most of their returns come in during or after 2024. As intimated by the option to stake neurons for up to 8 years, the Internet Computer is a long-term project. Don't expect the moon tomorrow when the roadmap is twenty years long — the Internet Computer's ultimate destination is out of the solar system!
Next Steps
I believe it's an ideal time to accumulate ICP. Prices are comparably low and will likely remain low for the foreseeable future. Moreover, people who stake ICP in neurons are currently enjoying up to 21.6% rewards in ICP annually (current rate can be calculated here). With merge maturity and so many new options on the NNS, now is the perfect time to participate in network governance. The Dfinity Community has written a guide for you! What are you waiting for? Get started now while entry is cheap!
Next Week's Price Prediction
All things being equal, next week's ICP prices should look similar to last week's. Despite the recent spike in demand and price, I continue to agree with Kyle Langham's earlier analysis that predicts ICP price will bottom out at an all-time low before June 2022. There is evidence of increasing demand and growing mainstream attention for the Internet Computer, but in my opinion, it won't be enough to overcome new ICP supply for at least the next few months.
- High - $38 USD per ICP.
- Typical - $33 USD per ICP.
- Low - $27 USD per ICP.
Last Week Issue
Geoffrey Miller
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