Disclaimer
Before offering my weekly price speculation, let's clear the air about my loyalties. I firmly believe the Internet Computer is an amazing, revolutionary technology that promises to play a substantial role in the future development of the Internet. I've invested significantly in ICP, and I think my investment was an excellent decision that will pay off big time. I'm also absolutely convinced of the Internet Computer's mind-blowing potential, and I am beyond enthusiastic about contributing to realizing its vision of a truly decentralized Web3.
That being said, my duty to investors and general users of the Internet Computer is to be honest about my ICP price forecasts and opinions. My articles don't set out to deter or encourage investment; instead, they set out to predict prices. Then, it's up to you to evaluate and decide how to apply the information I provide. I cannot tell you whether to dollar-cost-average, go all-in, sell, or wait. That's your decision to make, and if you have the resources for it, my recommendation is to seek out professional investment counseling that's tailored to your situation.
So, with the air cleared, let's move on with speculations about ICP price.
Market Madness
Last week, my forecasting article made controversial predictions about declining ICP price. So far, those predictions remain unchanged. The ICP price will likely hover slightly below $20 USD for the short term. Note well; however, that likely is not synonymous with certain. The cryptocurrency market, and the world at large, are fearful for compelling reasons - but fear is not equivalent to actual danger. Fear is merely a warning that danger might be at hand. In the meantime, fear can be an investor's best friend. "Buy fear, sell greed," as the old adage goes.
Eventually and inevitably, the world will calm down, and when that happens, ICP prices will rise again. In my experience, effective decisions are rarely made while in a state of panic, and good things come to those who wait. Thus, I won't be doing anything rash. I'll take current geopolitical threats seriously but measuredly, and I'll continue to hope for and look forward to a peaceful resolution to current geopolitical tensions over Ukraine. Humanity can, and often does, turn away from the temptation to give in to the madness of war.
Methods
But enough about wars and rumors of wars. Let's talk about something happier - math and statistics. We've not yet talked much about the reasoning undergirding Dfinity Community's forecasts. In brief, it's all about time-series data.
My forecasts always start with the AAA version of the standard Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) algorithm, accounting for seasonality, applied to the past 90 days of ICP prices. Here's an in-a-nutshell explanation of how it works.
This approach is straightforward and avoids getting bogged down with too many details. Later on, I may start tracking how ICP price correlates with interest rates or Internet Computer network growth. For the time being, to arrive at my typical, high, and low numbers, I take about a $10 USD spread around the middle of my forecast - occasionally adjusted up or down, or compressed, by a few dollars based on gut instinct.
Next Week's Price Prediction
Next week's ICP prices will most likely continue to decline in view of geopolitical uncertainties.
- High - $23 USD per ICP.
- Typical - $19.50 USD per ICP.
- Low - $16 USD per ICP.
For those of you who appreciate a more detailed daily prediction, here's your nine-day forecast using the AAA version of the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) algorithm on the past 90 days of ICP price data, accounting for seasonality.
Last Week Issue
Geoffrey Miller
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